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  • If the richter scale is inaccurate beyond 6.0, what should we be using to measure the magnitude of large earthquakes?
    Dinolock_small
    Reputation: 976

    Disclaimer: this entire post is based on under 60 seconds of Google and Wikipedia

    According to Wikipedia, the USGS does not use the Richter scale and hasn't since the 70s or so. They use the "moment magnitude scale" but since the numbers are still pretty close to the Richter scale, it is commonly (and incorrectly) called that: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moment_magnitude_scale

    More info can be found in the first paragraph of http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richter_magnitude_scale where they talk about why the Richter scale gets saturated at higher levels.

  • Is there any risk of a tsunami in the Seattle area?
    Gold-head_small
    Reputation: 6000

    Earthquake yes, tsunami no. Tsunamis can't really get through narrow gaps; even a large wave would be dissipated by Admiralty Inlet. Victoria, Port Townsend, even Bellingham could get hammered, but the real action is always going to be on the open ocean coast.

    I heard a UW guy on the radio the other day saying that it would be almost impossible for Seattle to get more than a few inches of surge.

  • Is there any risk of a tsunami in the Seattle area?
    P1000515_small
    Reputation: 25

    Tsunamis here normally hit the coast and sometimes come through the Strait of Juan de Fuca where they can impact the north part of Whidbey Island, Bellingham, etc. For a tsunami to harm Seattle, the earthquake would have to take place directly beneath Puget Sound. In that case, Puget Sound acts like a bowl of water sloshing back and forth. This has happened.

  • Does the sediment/earth really become liquid-like during an earthquake or does it just seem like it?
    Qlandav2ex_small
    Reputation: 4209

    Fill sandy soil does has not packed efficiently when deposited unlike that which has been laid down over geologic time and via transport by water so the vibrations of the earth movement cause it to move and flow like liquid. You can see a similar effect when playing with cornstarch and water slurry. Left to sit you can push down hard and it will support your hand, shake it and it will move and pour like a liquid.

    A similar effect is what happens to the flowing soil/sand/rock debris in a lahar where the material acts like a viscous liquid in movement and then turns to a solid when the flowing motion stops.

  • Does the sediment/earth really become liquid-like during an earthquake or does it just seem like it?
    Goonies_small
    Reputation: 956

    My understanding is that it behaves like a liquid. See this handy wikipedia article: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soil_liquefaction

    Most freaky is that it can happen to soil layers below the top layer, allowing them to "boil up."

    This phenomenon is what terrorizes me about the SODO area of Seattle. During an earthquake, that mud/sandy fill becomes a big bowl of mudflat soup.

  • How does Seattle's earthquake area compare to Wasatch Valley's?
    Bodin_small
    Reputation: 148

    Not too personal at all! The Wasatch front is a real seismic hazard but it differs significantly from Seattle's. In Utah the predominant seismic hazard is from the range-bounding "normal" fault that runs all along the front and right through Salt Lake City. ("normal" here being geological jargon denoting a fault that is a dipping plane, with the block on top slipping down relative to the block on the bottom--like gravity was driving it.) Big normal faults create the beautiful mountains and valleys all across the Basin and Range, with the Sierra Nevada on the west and the Wasatch on the east moving ever so slowly apart.

    The Wasatch fault breaks in chunks that give rise to earthquakes in the M7+ range. Here's an image I stole from the USGS, showing the most recent breaks along the front according to geologists.

    The overall level of hazard is a bit less than that of Seattle. The USGS National Seismic Hazard Maps provide gobs of detail. Here's a quick overview in which reds are bad and greens good (as usual!) that gives you an intuitive feel for the distribution of hazard in the western US.

    Now this specific map represents a level of a specific frequency of ground shaking that can be expected with a probability of 2% in 50 years. This convoluted way of looking at things ends up being useful for planners, although it seems confusing to us mortals.  But think of it like a weather map showing the likelihood of strong rain, for example. You're more likely to get shook in Seattle over any 50 year period, then you are in Salt Lake. But both are pretty high.

    The difference in Seattle is diversity [Gee, who would have thought Seattle to be more diverse than Salt Lake City?]. The potential earthquake sources that contribute to Seattle's high hazard level include M9 megaquakes on the subduction interface out to the west of the city, deep earthquakes (like the 2001 Nisqually earthquake ) in the downgoing sea-floor slab, and crustal faults (like the Seattle Fault that runs right through the city). While the chance of an earthquake from any of the three sources is fairly low (Well, the Nisqually-type source seems to have a rather high recurrence rate, given very similar events in 1949 and 1965 ), they all conspire to form a fairly hefty hazard here.

  • Home Repair (Earthquake Mitigation) - Live Now on KUOW 94.9
    Job_plans__small
    Reputation: 4

    Roger Faris is one of the top experts in Seattle on preparation of homes for earthquake . He was a driving force in the implementation of the standard earthquake retrofit plan for the city of Seattle and taught the city's "How to Retrofit Your Own Home" class for several years. His dry wit keeps the subject interesting. If you missed this program, call and see if they will air it again.

  • Will the Yellowstone super volcano kill us all if it erupts?
    P1000261_small
    Reputation: 51

    Nova had a great episode called "Mystery of the Megavolcano" that covered this very well and still gives me nightmares. It used to be available to watch online, but now harder to find for free.

  • do you think the time and effort spent worrying about natural disasters is justified?
    Kermitsex_small
    Reputation: 2421

    l'm having a discussion elsewhere about moral imperative and civil duty. l think it applies to this conversation.

    You're right that some people are waaayyy too neurotic about this; it's my opinion that if the thought of natural disasters truly affect one's quality of life, he should consider relocating somewhere that isn't prone to them.

    However, that doesn't mean we shouldn't take the necessary structural precautions and emergency contingency plans that will protect our numbers. Shit, were those in better place elsewhere, the aftermath of Katrina might have been far less horrifying.

    l take some issue with a 'there will always be casualties' argument. Casualties are a fact in the face of natural disaster, but as Emily Steed pointed out in my 'fire' thread, that doesn't mean that packing up a few necessities/valuables in case of emergency is overthinking it. l don't think that's what you're saying (at least, l hope not), l'm just addressing that point in case it is. At any rate, "a few are going to die anyway" isn't a solid argument; it both diminishes the value of protecting as many as possible, and implies that there's no point in doing anything when both death and survival are simply just inevitable. lf your apartment collapses, you may die, but if you don't, that whistle or little foghorn that you grabbed when the earth started shaking will probably save your life. You might be alive solely because of the emergency drills you practiced. ls preserving that worth the preparation? Hell, yes.

    This isn't Chicken Little, a completely irrational fear that the sky will fall. Geologically and statistically speaking, we'll have earthquakes whether we like it or not, and have little ones every day throughout Washington. lt's common sense to be ready, and the percentage of people who run around hollering about the sky falling is much smaller than those who make sensible preparations, and then do their best to survive when the big one hits.

    That said, the viaduct and certain other structures in Seattle are things that we can control in terms of keeping casualties to a minimum, and they need to addressed. This is not a case in which procrastination should be overlooked.

  • do you think the time and effort spent worrying about natural disasters is justified?
    Headshot-1_small
    Reputation: 5

    Planning and preparation are great ways to remove worry and stress and they don't require much time. Once a month, do one thing to be better prepared. Make it a family activity. "Prepare in a Year" offers a handy guide: http://www.emd.wa.gov/preparedness/documents/PE_PIY_Booklet.pdf

    Keep in mind: We prepare for a lot of things in life... the birth of a child, job interviews, weddings, vacations... preparing for disasters is also a worthy investment of time.

  • Is it true I should have water and a whistle in every room?
    Headshot-1_small
    Reputation: 5

    I recommend having an emergency kit in your home, office/classroom, and vehicle. While these kits may include some different and unique supplies (e.g. flares and warm clothing for the car), each should contain water, non-perishable food, needed medications, basic first aid supplies, a whistle and small flashlight. Should an earthquake or other disaster strike, these handy kits can sustain you for a period of time until additional help is available. Visit www.3days3ways.org for checklists and other tips.

  • do you think the time and effort spent worrying about natural disasters is justified?
    Sacri_ordines_by_charism_small
    Reputation: 3723

    Fear phobia aside...

    You're asking to put a price on life.

    I'm not buying.

  • During an earthquake, could a sink hole ever suddenly appear and swallow you up? Or is that Hollywood fiction?
    Chabal_shirtless__9__small
    Reputation: 18

    I think it can, especially if it's big enough. I think it's more likely to happen during flooding. And it can get big enough to take out a car, like the picture below, but probably not like Hollywood's 2012. That's fake.

  • do you think the time and effort spent worrying about natural disasters is justified?
    Chabal_shirtless__9__small
    Reputation: 18

    No. I think one should look at what demographic they are and the associated risk factors for death/injury and be concerned about reducing your risk of dying from that.

    Cardiovascular disease, alcohol and drugs, domestic violence and car accidents are typically the way most young people go out. And even this long list can be broken down into more like two big categories, most falling under substance abuse in some way.

    Here's a list of death factors and you'll see war on the list, but not dying in an earthquake. So if you're in an demographic that can be drafted, be worried about that.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_causes_of_death_by_rate

  • do you think the time and effort spent worrying about natural disasters is justified?
    Job_plans__small
    Reputation: 4

    Most people who are prepared for earthquake are able to release the worrying and stressing once they have done what they know to do to be ready . We have no control over nature's forces. We can control what we do to prepare. Preparation is positive. For the unprepared, dealing with the aftermath of a tragic event is painful. There is no balance here. Preparation is by far the best path.

  • do you think the time and effort spent worrying about natural disasters is justified?
    Bodin_small
    Reputation: 148

    This is a really great question, I think. But it is a tough one to answer simply, in part because there are so many levels on which you've posed it (from time spent to psychological impact) and because there are so many uncertainties (for example, we don't know that event X is going to strike--is time spent preparing for it therefore wasted?).

    My short answer is this, and it is my personal opinion: I think we should spend less time worrying and fretting about possible disasters and relatively more effort in rational and sensible preparations and precautions that would prevent natural threats from becoming disasters. Examples of sensible preparations and precaustions we can do about the earthquake threat include: 1) education, 2) threat monitoring, 3) developing and enforcing the most well-informed design and building codes, 4) encouraging and rewarding simple mitigation measures, and 5) having personal and family emergency plans and kits [but not going overboard on these].

    For earthquakes--the only thing I can claim to know anything usefully quantitative about--one way to look at your question is to reduce it to a money question [dollars and "sense"?]. FEMA (the Federal Emergency Management Agency) has produced a valuable report, updated in 2008. In it they estimate that based on the best current thinking, earthquakes will cost annualized losses (AEL) within the state of Washington of $366,431,000. That is what the cost each year of the impacts of expected earthquakes affecting the state will be, averaged over time. The question becomes, what fraction of that should be spent to prepare for, and mitigate, those potential losses? Can we substantially lower this amount by spending relatively little? Or should we just shrug our shoulders and acknowledge that somebody will have to pay these costs eventually? [By the way, the report has other information of interest, like number of expected displaced households, and tons of debris expected to have to move, etc.]

    Another thing that makes this tough is that when a natural threat takes place--and you've prepared, it is difficult to be sure how much you've saved. How much worse would it have been had you not spent the effort? I think the disaster in Haiti demonstrates a worst-case scenario that has nothing to do with our circumstances. But it does illustrate what happens when society is absolutely unprepared.

    One final point is that we tend to focus on the Katrinas and Haitis and Sumatras that really blast a region and its inhabitants. Far more likely for earthquakes in Washington, and arguably what we should spend the most effort on, are scenarios where there are pockets of damage (as opposed to regional devastation) that may have significant economic impacts regionally. I imagine the port facilities being damaged such that industries can't ship materials easily, as one potential example. Or transportation corridors being disrupted so that business can't move materials around. We must acknowledge that we're going to get knocked down. We should be prepared to pick ourselves up, dust ourselves off, and get back to life--which should NOT be spent worrying about potential disasters!

  • do you think the time and effort spent worrying about natural disasters is justified?
    2008_0522stuff0016_small
    Reputation: 2052

    Disasters in general are worth preparing for.

    Here's my case study: I know a guy named Bob. Nice guy. Used to be a fire chief in Sioux City, IA, but he's retired now. He worked for the city starting in the '80s. Every year, the city would do a disaster preparedness drill, and every year, some idiot on the city council would claim that they spent too much money on the drills and that nothing ever happened there anyway.

    And then this happened.

    Bob told me that that crash was the worst call he'd ever been on, but that the only thing that kept everyone from dying were those preparedness drills had been ongoing and the people on the grond had practiced. Ever since, the city does its drills and should anyone complain about the cost, that crash gets brought up and the complaints die.

    From personal experience, flooding really sucks. My husband and I weren't as prepared as we could have been, and as a result, we lost a lot of stuff that could have been saved. Consider: are a few minutes of preparation worth potentially losing thousands of dollars in the event of a disaster? Insurance doesn't cover everything.

    The caveat is that if one is paralyzed by fear of disasters, then you need help.

  • do you think the time and effort spent worrying about natural disasters is justified?
    Skull_pumpkin_small
    Reputation: 1610

    I think it depends on which part you spend most time on. Worry and stressing is non-productive, true. But the time spent to prepare for a natural disaster could save my life or make the aftermath of the natural disaster a hell of a lot less uncomfortable.

    Case in point: I used to live in hurricane country. Worrying about hurricanes=useless. Installing storm shutters=very good idea that avoided blown-out windows during one hurricane.

  • During an earthquake, could a sink hole ever suddenly appear and swallow you up? Or is that Hollywood fiction?
    Sacri_ordines_by_charism_small
    Reputation: 3723

    Judging from the beacon hill LINK tunnel and the geology lessons (unaccounted sand pockets turning into frontyard sinkholes) there about our local ground...
    yes there's danger
    ...IF you live above a LINK tunnel. =)

  • Probability of Cascadia Subduction Zone Earthquake
    Job_plans__small
    Reputation: 4

    There is a great video about this, entitled "Cascadia - the Hidden Fire." It aired on PBS. It interviews a number of northwest seismologists, describes the great Alaskan earthquake of 1964, and underlines the risk Seattle faces. It is available at: http://www.equakevideo.com/

  • Will the Yellowstone super volcano kill us all if it erupts?
    Job_plans__small
    Reputation: 4

    The Yellowstone Caldra. I first read about it in a wonderful, lighthearted, book by the title of, "A Short History of Nearly Everything," by Bill Bryson. I could not sleep for a week after reading his description! However, National Geographic did a feature on it in 2007. The caldra is there, but their conclusion was much more pedestrian! Check it out at: http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2007/11/071108-yellowstone.html

  • Is it true I should have water and a whistle in every room?
    Job_plans__small
    Reputation: 4

    It is not necessary to have water and a whistle in every room, but it is a good idea to have a stash of emergency supplies which contain water and a whistle.

    In Seattle and most of the United States, buildings are mostly constructed of wood. Our homes are elaborate wooden boxes, for the most part. Our grander apartment and condo buildings are elaborate steel boxes. As a result, even if the house or apartment building fails, it will retain its box-like shape. That means we will probably not be crushed by the building itself. If we drop, cover, and hold while everything is shaking, we will likely be able to get up and go get our water and whistle after the earthquake shaking stops.

    What will crush us is the big screen TV, if it is not restrained. Or our tall bookcases, if they are not anchored to the wall. Or that big mirror, or those large framed pictures above the sofa, or perhaps that prize Chihuly glass sculpture proudly displayed on the mantle of the fireplace....maybe we should place it on the hearth. You get the idea. The rule of thumb is, if our possessions can rattle around and hurt us, or if they are valuable and may be hurt in the severe shaking of an earthquake, we should take the effort to secure them.

    You can look at some illustrations of the basics of securing things in your home at http://www.emd.wa.gov/preparedness/prep_home.shtml. Or check out the home hazard hunt at https://eqhomesafety.websitesource.net/earthquakehazardhunt.html.

    Oh, and about that whistle. Be sure to store your emergency supply pack near the exit. It needs to be handy to pick up if you are getting out in a hurry.

  • Probability of Cascadia Subduction Zone Earthquake
    Bodin_small
    Reputation: 148

    Since there were no seismographs (and, even better, no seismologists!) around much more than a century ago, our evidence about how often Cascadia subduction zone earthquakes occur comes from what a lawyer might call "circumstantial evidence". Mostly, from tsunami deposits--characteristic sediments left behind when high tsunamis ran inland and left a layer of sand behind. Also from coastal tree stands in which the all the trees died at once, due to being submerged in saltwater as a result of deformation associated with a big event (and which we can date precisely using tree-rings).

    Chris Goldfinger, at Oregon State has shown that Cascadia earthquakes also cause submarine "turbidity currents" that are essentially mudflows that cascade down offshore canyons, and that can be sampled using sea floor coring devices, and the events dated. The size, or magnitude, of these ancient events may be related to how widespread the shaking was (and thus how widespread their resulting turbidite deposits are found). He's established a chronology of Cascadia subduction events that seems to indicate that the subduction zone is "segmented". He interprets the data as evidence that the southern portion tends to go off in relatively smaller earthquakes (M8-M8.5?) relatively frequently. But about half as often the entire margin breaks (like it did 310 years ago), from Cape Mendocino to Vancouver Island, in a walloping M9 earthquake. From a seismologist's perspective, I think these findings are all logical and make a sensible story. But since I'm not a geologist I retain a skeptical attitude about just how well one can identify the turbidites arising from individual earthquakes in different submarine channels.

    Ok, now for the probabilities. Yes the accepted 50-year probability of occurrence for a Cascadia Megaquake (sounds like something Hollywood would invent, no?) is generally regarded as 10%-15%. You could do worse than saying that if in any 500 year period I'm likely to have one M9 earthquake, then in 10% of that time interval (i.e. 50 years) I've got 10% chance of an M9. I know I know you think that a 50 year period starting at 450 years after the last earthquake will have a higher chance than one starting 100 years afterward. We call that "time dependent" probability, and it sounds grand. The problem is that you need to know a LOT about the variability of your "500 year events", or time-dependent probabilites don't do any better at forecasting likelihoods of earthquakes then the simple calculation we just did.

    Goldfinger's results indeed suggest that the likelihood of a strong southern Cascadia Subduction Zone earthquake is something like twice as high as for the northern part of the zone, which only breaks in great M9 beasts.

    Now for my answer to the triggering question: Not that I know of. While it is clear that stress changes and seismic waves from one earthquake can indeed cause other earthquakes to happen, simply not enough is currently known about how this works to enable us to guess how likely it is to happen with any particular earthquake. But my guess is that it is probably fairly rare since I'm not aware of any historical examples of subduction earthquakes being followed by a large crustal earthquake in the overriding plate (and I was looking for this after the 2004 Sumatra earthquake and last month's Chile earthquake).

  • Will the Yellowstone super volcano kill us all if it erupts?
    Cateyes_small
    Reputation: 2173

    Oh, great. Something else for me to have nightmares about.

  • Will the Yellowstone super volcano kill us all if it erupts?
    Gaptw8_small
    Reputation: 32

    NO. It'll kill those who can't escape to the east coast.

  • During an earthquake, could a sink hole ever suddenly appear and swallow you up? Or is that Hollywood fiction?
    Bodin_small
    Reputation: 148

    During an earthquake we observe several different sorts of ground failures.

    Let's imagine the earthquake process in a couple of stages, First, driven by stressed rock, a fault plane ruptures (i.e., one side moves relative to the other). This release of elastic energy -- like a stretched rubber band, but rather stored in the stretched rocks around the fault, radiates outward as seismic waves in all directions. These seismic waves cruise outward through the rock and, near Earth's surface, interact with lots of just normal rocks and soils. But there are also pockets of soft weak soil, wet sandy muck (another technical term!), cliffs, and other topographic features. Seismic waves can cause failures in these weak features, too.

    So:

    Ground failure #1 is where a fault rupture itself intersects Earth's surface. Different types of faults lead to different detailed patterns in the faulting. But since the dominant motion of a fault rupture is shear -- the sides slide along against each other -- fault breaks aren't likely to swallow anybody up! This just doesn't happen.

    Ground failure #2 is related to liquefaction--where a wet sandy soil is shaken so violently that it looses cohesion and compacts--often squirting water and sand out onto the surface--and looses it's bearing capacity; buildings may list, or even fall over. If there is the slightest slope, liquefied soils will flow, and may break up into blocks. The wonderful picture of the Turnagain Heights liquefaction features in Anchorage that O my captain attached to his answer is a beautiful example of this type of ground failure.

    Ground failure #3 is triggered landslides. This one's easy, you shake a hillside and gravity tumbles it down. This can bury folks, like any landslide. However nothing opens up and swallows you.

    Yes I've spent a professional lifetime telling people not to worry, the ground WILL NOT open up and swallow you and then close again. THEN I took this picture after the ChiChi earthquake in Taiwan, 1999. My team and I couldn't figure out how---but this is the only thing I've ever seen that made believe it was possible....(!)

  • During an earthquake should we stay in a doorway or find a "void" space?
    Headshot-1_small
    Reputation: 5

    Unfortunately, e-mails have been circulating on the Internet incorrectly touting the "Triangle of Life" technique which allegedly use voids as a way to survive earthquakes. Simply put, the technique is not applicable for earthquake experiences in the United States.

    The "Triangle of Life" is not appropriate for use in the United States because the research used to illustrate the method were based on earthquake response and recovery in Turkey, a country very different from the United States when it comes to building standards, construction and engineering techniques, and building codes.

    Earthquakes in the United States do not typically result in total building collapse or "pancake." As a result, when earthquakes strike in the U.S., the safest thing for children and adults to do is "Drop, Cover and Hold" underneath a desk, table, or other sturdy strong surface.

    The "Triangle of Life" also advocates for getting out of bed if caught asleep during an earthquake. Again, this is incorrect for the United States where the bed could provide more safety during an earthquake because rolling onto the floor beside it, where you could be injured by debris. The more you move during an earthquake, the more potential there is for injury.

    The best method for earthquake safety in the U.S. is "Drop, Cover and Hold". If you have received an email about the "triangle of life" please respond to its sender by directing them to www.earthquakecountry.info/dropcoverholdon/ and ask them to forward this link to others they may have contacted.

  • Are we really supposed to stand in door jambs during an earthquake?
    Headshot-1_small
    Reputation: 5

    "Drop, Cover and Hold" is still the best method for earthquake safety, and is endorsed by the American Red Cross, FEMA and the U.S. Geological Survey.

    Your past experience in earthquakes may give you a false sense of safety. In some cases you may not have done anything, or you ran outside, and survived with no injuries. Or perhaps you got under your desk and others thought you overreacted.

    However, you likely have not experienced the kind of strong earthquake shaking that is possible very large earthquakes: sudden and intense back and forth motions of several feet per second will cause the floor or the ground to jerk sideways out from under you, and every unsecured object around you could topple, fall, or become airborne, potentially causing serious injury. This is why you must learn to immediately protect yourself after the first jolt... don't wait to see if the earthquake shaking will be strong!

    In MOST situations, you will reduce your chance of injury if you:

    DROP down onto your hands and knees (before the earthquakes knocks you down). This position protects you from falling but allows you to still move if necessary.

    COVER your head and neck (and your entire body if possible) under a sturdy table or desk. If there is no shelter nearby, only then should you get down near an interior wall (or next to low-lying furniture that won't fall on you), and cover your head and neck with your arms and hands.

    HOLD ON to your shelter (or to your head and neck) until the shaking stops. Be prepared to move with your shelter if the shaking shifts it around.

    While images of collapsed structures in earthquakes around the world are frightening and get the most attention from the media, most buildings in the U.S. do not collapse at all, and few completely collapse. Strict building codes have worked to greatly reduce the potential of structure collapse.

    However, there is the possibility of structural failure in certain building types, especially unreinforced masonry (brick buildings), and in certain structures constructed before the latest building codes. Rescue professionals are trained to understand how these structures collapse in order to identify potential locations of survivors within "survivable void spaces."

    The main goal of "Drop, Cover, and Hold On" is to protect you from falling and flying debris and other nonstructural hazards, and to increase the chance of your ending up in a survivable void space if the building actually collapses.

    While a doorway may be an alternate "safe spot" option if you live in old, unreinforced or older woodframe houses, you may not be able to brace yourself in the door during strong shaking. In modern houses, doorways are no stronger than any other part of the house, and the doorway does not protect you from the most likely source of injury- falling or flying objects. You are safer under a sturdy table.

    Check out this link for additional tips for surviving an earthquake in a number of different locations and situations: http://www.earthquakecountry.info/roots/step5.html

  • Are we really supposed to stand in door jambs during an earthquake?
    Bodin_small
    Reputation: 148

    If you are clear-headed enough when you feel a strong earthquake to think "Hmmm. Let's see  ... now, do I stand in a doorway? Or ... maybe get under my desk? Or, no! I should run outside!" then you are a real cool customer and will have no problem surviving anything that happens.

    The couple of truly large earthquakes I've been in have taught me that my body (and the Earth) will do what they want, and I'm just a passive observer: "Oh my, I'm trying to get out of bed and I keep getting heaved back onto it!" or "Wow! Here I am out of doors..isn't that supposed to be a dumb place to be? How did I get here?". So I'm not the cool analytical sort during an earthquake, apparently.

    If you happen to be, then here's my prejudiced opinion for you to consider when the next large earrthquake strikes. I think it matters greatly where you are. If you are in a well-constructed office with sturdy furniture, then "Drop, Cover, and Hold" may be for you--protects you from projectile-books and falling ceiling tiles. If you are in an mud-chinked river-rock cabin with turf on the ceiling, then you best get outside ASAP, jumping underneath that flimsy card table isn't going to protect you from the tons of primitive building materials about to come your way. If you have no furniture to jump under and have a nice arched doorway with no door in it and far away from that big picture window in your living room...why then probably you should saunter over there and brace yourself in it. There are some advice videos  from SCEC (the Southern California Earthquake Consortium) available online by clicking here .

    There are some places I simply feel out of place being in. A parking structure in the city is one, the Alaskan Way Viaduct another, any elevator too. It is my plan not to be in one of those when the earthquake hits. Maybe someone else has good advice for these spots, if you can't avoid them.

  • Will the Yellowstone super volcano kill us all if it erupts?
    Bodin_small
    Reputation: 148

    OK, you're asking a seismologist about a volcano and if any of my vulcanologist buddies read this I'll never hear the end of it...

    Let's clarify some obscure but important points. There are different kinds of volcanic eruptions, even at an individual volcanic center. At Yellowstone the most common kind of eruption is hydrothermal --superheated steam or water blasts out craters as large as half a mile across! But that isn't going to strongly affect the US. Magmatic (i.e. lava--molten rock -- the real stuff!) eruptions vary in the chemistry and physical properties of the magma they emit from soupy, runny, basalt like a Hawaiian volcano (picture lava flows running along the ground) to sticky chunky dry goobery gunk called rhyolite that can be as explosive as all get out. The commonest (i.e. most likely) eruptions are smaller ones, and caldera-forming super volcano explosions being the rarest. In fact. at Yellowstone the real bad boy explosions that frame the main point of your question occurred 2.1 million years ago and 1.3 million years ago and 0.64 million years ago. Based on average recurrence of these events, we are deep into a cycle and may only have to wait another 90,000 years for another. [I'm no statistician, but in order to actually answer your last question I just calculated a rough back-of-the envelope estimate of ~0.02% chance of a supervolcano eruption in 100 years, and I made some assuptions that make this rather a high-end estimate].

    The most likely eruption, either hydrothermal or magmatic, would NOT be a super volcano, but a regular-sized family-friendly volcanic episode. It would be big news. It would close the Yellowstone National Park. It would likely put a thin layer of volcanic ash all over the northern tier of states. It would disrupt the heck out of air traffic. But it would not kill us all, or wipe out our civilization. (too bad, some might say!)

    A supervolcano could be bad news, could disrupt agriculture downwind and could even affect global weather patterns (which actually could help forestall global warming?!). I still don't think it would come close to killing us all or wiping out the country.

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