About Bruce Schoonmaker

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  If a tsunami/quake hits the OR/WA coasts, what kind of damage is expected if it is like the 1700 quake/tsunami? Will people have time to escape?

  2 0 In Seattle a tsunami from the coastal earthquake should be pretty subdued because of the damping effect of the Sound. However along the coast it will be a different story. The next time you are at the beach you should ask the question, "If the big subduction zone earthquake hit now, what would I do?" Outline a strategy beforehand. After the shaking stops there will be about fifteen to twenty minutes to get to higher ground before the tsunami hits. Along most of the Washington coast there is high ground within reach. However, twenty minutes is not much time, so do not spend time grabbing valuables. Head for the hills! The Japanese quake had a 12+ meter tsunami in places. We could expect as much on the coast. The average telephone pole is about 20 feet tall. Try to get at least two telephone poles height above high tide. In some places even that might not be high enough. Lowlands will be inundated. Houses and other buildings will be destroyed. For those planning a vacation at a NW beach, required reading should be: http://www.ess.washington.edu/tsunami/index.html. It may not be so easy in places like Ocean Shores, Westport and Long Beach. Even though the tsunami evacuation routes are clearly marked, only the first ones in line will make it out in a worst case scenario. And that assumes the bridges are still intact. For accounts of what happened during the tsunami in Chile in 1960: http://pubs.usgs.gov/circ/c1187/ This gives accounts of what did and did not work to survive. So, enjoy your next beach holiday! Bruce Schoonmaker answered in Earthquake! about 1 year ago Answer and comment »

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  If an earthquake hit in Elliott Bay, aren't we all fucked?

  0 0 If you are on the waterfront or in an older unsecured building that might be true. However, if you are reasonably prepared for an earthquake, you should do very well: www.govlink.org/3days3ways. After the shaking stops you would get out from under the protective cover you found when the quake started, pick up the mess in your home caused by the shaking and go out to help your neighbors who were not nearly as foresighted as you in preparation. For those who really want to be a help after the event, go to http://www.citizencorps.gov/cert/ to see how you can train to be useful after the big earthquake. Bruce Schoonmaker answered in Earthquake! about 1 year ago Answer, comment & read 2 more answers »

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  What are odds that an 8.5 will hit Seattle? (possible please to give odds in a 100 year time frame?)

  2 0 The cost of an earthquake retrofit for an average home is between $5000 and $15,000. Most homes in Seattle are valued between 350K and 900K. Does it make sense to spend $10,000 to secure an older home valued at $400,000? Of course, it all depends on whether there is likely to be an earthquake strong enough to cause the typical Seattle, wood-frame home to fail. We all remember the Nisqually earthquake of 2001. This type of quake occurs every 35 or so years. These earthquakes that fracture deep beneath the surface are destructive, but for most homeowners the damage is managable, even without retrofit. The two types of earthquakes which will do the most damage to our housing stock have not occurred in our lifetime. These we should be concerned about. The earthquake that hit Japan has us most nervous because of the similar subduction zone fault just off our coast. This is also the type of destructive quake to rock Chili last year. When the Cascadia fault moves there could be two to four minutes of Nisqually-type shaking in Seattle. Our housing stock was not built to take that kind of lateral movement for that long. Earthquake retrofit can strengthen a house to resist such shaking. There will always be damage to homes in a severe earthquake. The goal is to keep the house on the foundation and be able to clean up and go to bed in our own beds when it is over. Retrofit affords the best chance to stay in our homes after such an event. But will this subduction zone earthquake happen in our lifetimes? Perhaps. The fault moves every 300 to 500 years. We are in a window of risk since the fault last ruptured in January, 1700. For more details about the Cascadia earthquake go to: http://geology.about.com/od/quake_preparedness/a/aa_cascadiaEQ.htm Of greater concern is the Seattle fault which extends from the south end of Bainbridge Island across Puget Sound under the Seattle sports stadiums and follows I-5 to Issaquah. It is a shallow, strike fault that could produce a 7 to 7.5 magnitude earthquake. It would be hugely destructive to the city and its housing stock. The great Haiti quake in January, 2010 was similar to the Seattle Fault, as was the Christchurch, New Zealand earthquake which was so destructive last month. Read a detailed scenario for the Seattle fault at: http://www.eeri.org/site/projects/eq-scenarios/seattle-fault The last time the Seattle fault moved was 1100 years ago. The geology shows four large earthquakes on the fault in the past 3000 years. It is thought to produce a large earthquake every 700 to 1000 years. It is overdue! How do we compute this risk? It behooves us to be prepared. Retrofit the older home! Secure furniture! Collect disaster supplies! Anchor the water heater! Protect window glass! Install a gas shutoff valve! Create a disaster plan with your family! Prepare! Most homeowners have to pick and choose what projects they can do each year. If the roof is leaking, repair it. If the electrical wiring is dangerous take care of it. If the plumbing is leaking fix it. But do not add a new kitchen or bath to the old house until you have secured it with earthquake retrofit! A $40,000 kitchen remodel can be lost with the rest of the house in less than a minute of earthquake shaking. For those homeowners with more time than money, there is a do-it-yourself class in home earthquake retrofit offered every month through the Seattle Department of Emergency Management. http://www.seattle.gov/emergency/prepare/personal/home.htm. The Seattle Department of Planning also has good information at http://www.seattle.gov/dpd/Emergency/Earthquakes/Home_Retrofit_Program/DPDS_005871.asp. If you will allow a shameless plug, our website at www.EarthquakePrepared.com has a lot of good information about retrofit and earthquake preparation generally. For those still pondering the merits of earthquake retrofit I would offer the advice I give to clients. If you do not plan to be in your home for more than five years, retrofit will give you peace of mind, but you may not get your money back in resale. If that is a concern, speed up the process of selling and moving to a more secure place. Our home is usually our biggest asset. We do not want to lose it in a severe earthquake! Those planning to be in their home for more than five years should retrofit as soon as they can to protect their investment and their home! Bruce Schoonmaker answered in Earthquake! about 1 year ago Answer, comment & read 2 more answers »

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  Does it make sense to stock up on iodine?

  2 0 These are all great answers. Our risk does not warrant preparing in this way. A better preparation for us all is to be ready for an earthquake of similar magnitude to what we have seen in Japan and less recently in Christchurch, New Zealand. Check out the website: http://www.govlink.org/3days3ways/ Bruce Schoonmaker answered in Earthquake! about 1 year ago Answer, comment & read 6 more answers »

• Comment on Bruce Schoonmaker's answer…

  0 0 As a follow-up, King County Public Health is monitoring the situation and is making regular postings about it: http://www.kingcounty.gov/healthservices/health.aspx Bruce Schoonmaker commented about 1 year ago

• Comment on Bruce Schoonmaker's answer…

  0 0 Thanks for noticing. "The Puget Sound" does sound stilted. Almost no one uses an article before "Puget Sound," yet the grammar calls for it. reference: http://esl.about.com/od/thebasics/a/a_an_the.htm. Should I have used it? Probably not, since no one does in common parlance. Bruce Schoonmaker commented about 1 year ago

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  could Japan's nuclear meltdown effect us here in Seattle? I've heard rumors of it traveling with weather systems our way....

  3 0 Probably not to any significant level. The Chernobyl meltdown only had a danger zone radius of about 500 miles. It looks like the Japanese may keep this from that level of disaster. We are 4,000 or so miles from what is happening in Japan. The rain will serve to wash the contaminated dust into the ocean before it reaches us. This is spoken not as a nuclear scientist but as a fellow-concerned person who has been looking at the risk. Our more important concern should be preparation for a mega-quake in Seattle. The risk of our own earthquake disaster far outweighs the risk of radiation from Japan. A severe earthquake could happen to us at any time. The tsunami and nuclear problems are masking the fact that Japan withstood the earthquake itself pretty well because they were prepared. Strengthen older homes and buildings, secure furniture, collect a disaster kit, join a local emergency group. Three days, three ways! Bruce Schoonmaker answered in Earthquake! about 1 year ago Answer, comment & read 4 more answers »

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  If the richter scale is inaccurate beyond 6.0, what should we be using to measure the magnitude of large earthquakes?

  1 0 For most of us the Richter scale is descriptive enough to let us know how big an earthquake is. A great book that devotes about 15 pages of an appendix describing the measurement of earthquakes is "A Crack in the Edge of the World," by Simon Winchester. It is an account of the great San Francisco earthquake of 1906. Winchester also spends a fair amount of the book describing plate techtonics and the source of earthquakes generally. Bruce Schoonmaker answered in Earthquake! about 1 year ago Answer, comment & read 4 more answers »

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  Is there any risk of a tsunami in the Seattle area?

  1 0 Yes, there is some risk of tsunami in the Puget Sound. The big subduction zone earthquake off of the Northwest coast, like the fault which moved in Japan, will generate a huge wave on the coast, and send a wave speeding towards Japan, but should not generate much for Seattle. The twists and turns of the sound will tend to dampen the effect. However, according to seismologists, the Seattle Fault, that stretches roughly from the south end of Bainbridge Island to Issaquah following I-90, could produce a tsunami 3-4 meters high within the Sound. Figure about twelve feet above high tide for the risk zone along the water front. Bruce Schoonmaker answered in Earthquake! about 1 year ago Answer, comment & read 3 more answers »

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